The English Premier League will resume this weekend after a two-week international break.
While there isn't necessarily a blockbuster match this weekend - the highlight being Manchester United vs. Leicester City at Old Trafford – I feel there is still enough value to be gained on the betting board.
Consider these two Premier League bets as a way to grow your bankroll before the Final Four begins on Saturday night.
Best Bet #1 – Leeds United/Southampton Over 3 Goals (+105)
Both of these clubs like going on the offensive, putting pressure on the opposition, and playing games with a lot of action.
As a result, I anticipate goals in this match. Leeds United's offensive has been outstanding since Jesse Marsch came over as manager. It has scored at least two predicted goals in three of its last four games, including two consecutive victories over Norwich City and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Goals should come easily for the Peacocks, especially given how poor Southampton's defense has been on the road. Only Leeds United and bottom-placed Norwich City have surrendered more anticipated goals away from home this season than the Saints. In reality, in 14 away games this season, manager Ralph Hassenhutl's club has held only one opponent under one predicted goal.
Leeds might also be on the verge of a good offensive regression. This season, it has scored 34 goals vs 39.5 predicted, with a large portion of the difference coming at home. According to fbref.com, Leeds has scored 17 times on 22 anticipated goals at Elland Road.
Having said that, Southampton's offense has been in good form recently and should contribute to the total on Saturday. In four of its previous five games overall, and four of five away from home, it has scored at least one predicted goal. Expect another good performance from the Saints, who scored 2.3 xG in the reverse encounter against Leeds.
Best Bet #2 – Manchester United/Leicester City Over 3 Goals (-115)
These clubs, like Leeds United and Southampton, dislike playing defense.
Three straight meetings between these teams have resulted in at least three goals, including a 4-2 Leicester City victory at the King Power Stadium in which the sides combined for 4.5 anticipated goals.
The intriguing aspect of this game for me is that United's offensive has performed admirably at home, whilst Leicester has struggled to defend on the road. According to fbref.com, the Red Devils have scored at least one projected goal in five consecutive games at Old Trafford, and at least two expected goals in three of the previous four.
On the other hand, Leicester has surrendered the seventh-most anticipated goals on the road this season, with at least two xG in three consecutive road games against Big Six opponents. It has also yet to concede less than two goals to a top-half opponent away from home this season.
However, United's defense has recently provided opportunities for top-half EPL assaults. It has surrendered at least one predicted goal in each of its past four games against such teams.
As a consequence, expect both teams to participate in what I believe will be another high-scoring match.
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