Few Republicans in New Hampshire expect Gov. Chris Sununu, who passed on a U.S. Senate run this year, to run for president in 2024. | Jon Cherry/Getty Images for Concordia
It's been almost three months since Corey Lewandowski, Donald Trump's former campaign manager, demanded Chris Sununu's resignation, bragging that he was working to recruit a candidate to challenge the three-term Republican governor of New Hampshire.
He's not having a lot of luck.
Trump has transformed the Republican primaries into a referendum on the party's fealty to him in state after state, favoring primary challenges against incumbents who refuse to bend the knee and forcing dissenters to retire early.
Sununu, who insulted Trump and called him "fucking nuts" at a roast-style Gridiron Club dinner earlier this month, looks to remain beyond Trump's grasp, a thorn in his side that he hasn't been able to remove.
Mike Dennehy, a former executive director of the New Hampshire Republican Party and a former Republican National Committeeman from the state, stated, "You can speak up a storm, and they're certainly are folks in New Hampshire who are angry with Chris Sununu." "But the reality is, the man has around 60% approval, he's one of the most popular governors in the country, and New Hampshire residents like him."
Even for Trump, getting rid of Sununu is "an almost difficult undertaking to achieve," according to Dennehy.
Hassan is preparing for a possible challenge from Chris Sununu, a popular GOP governor whom Washington Republicans are wooing both privately and publicly. | Scott Eisen/Getty Images
Sununu's public popularity rating was 62 percent in the latest Saint Anselm College survey, up 9 percentage points from January. In November, he is generally anticipated to win re-election to a fourth term.
"A lot of thunder, no lightning," one longtime Republican activist in New Hampshire said of Lewandowski's search for a primary rival against Sununu.
"He could persuade some drunk to do it," the activist remarked, "but he's not going to get somebody serious to run against him." "It wouldn't amount to a hill of beans if Trump came out and hand-picked a candidate and backed him."
Julian Acciard, a New Hampshire businessman and Marine Corps veteran, told POLITICO on Monday that he had talked with Lewandowski and Fred Doucette, a state senator who was a Trump campaign co-chair in the state, in recent weeks. Acciard is converting from being a candidate for Congress to becoming a candidate for governor.
"It all started as a joke," Acciard said.
Acciard said he told Doucette over cigars at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Orlando earlier this year that Trump was searching for someone to primary Sununu, to which Doucette replied, "If you can't find someone, I'll drop out of my campaign and do it."
Later, Acciard claimed, he met with Lewandowski before a fundraiser for Geoff Diehl, a Trump-backed Republican candidate for governor of Massachusetts. 'He's a pretty polite man,' Acciard observed of Sununu. However, he is a member of a family heritage that has, to put it bluntly, run its course up here."
Nonetheless, Republican strategists in New Hampshire do not see Acciard or any other prospective Sununu opponent as a threat to Sununu, the son of a former governor and brother of a former senator.
"I really don't see any serious people here... Dave Carney, a national Republican strategist based in New Hampshire, said he was "ready to run what would be a hopeless attempt" to remove Sununu.
Few Republicans in New Hampshire believe Sununu will run for president in 2024, despite his decision not to run for the Senate this year.
Even if he won New Hampshire, his success would very certainly be overshadowed by his home-state advantage. Sununu's Northeastern Republican credentials will likely not appeal to hardline MAGA voters in other primary states, as New Hampshire is a tiny state with a limited fundraising base.
Former President Donald Trump exits the stage after speaking during a rally hosted by the former president at the Delaware County Fairgrounds on April 23, 2022, in Delaware, Ohio. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images
However, if Trump does not run for president in 2024 — or if his popularity within the Republican Party has waned by then — New Hampshire will be a crucial proving ground, and possible rivals are already weighing Sununu's appeal. That's because, after the Iowa caucuses, any candidate relying on a more moderate, nonevangelical base of support — such as former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie or Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan — will need a strong showing in New Hampshire to win over more socially moderate Republicans and independents.
One of Hogan's advisers remarked, "I'm just looking at the route forward." "If Sununu runs, he will wreak havoc on a huge portion of the 2024 field."
Sununu will be a sought-after endorsement in the state even if he does not run. Sununu "will be, at that time, a fourth-term Republican governor," according to Wayne MacDonald, a New Hampshire politician and former state Republican Party chair. He has a fantastic organization and a large network of support, and his endorsement will be critical."
Perhaps Trump is an exception to this rule. In 2016 and 2020, he comfortably won the New Hampshire primary, and it's uncertain whether any Republican, even Sununu, could defeat him there.
"There is 0.000001 percent chance that Chris Sununu will be the Republican nominee for president of the United States," Lewandowski said at a Mar-a-Lago gathering earlier this month if Sununu runs against Trump in 2024.
With the filing due not until June, Lewandowski believes Trumpworld still has time to get rid of Sununu.
"I believe Chris is extremely susceptible in a Republican primary," he continued, "so we'll see if anyone runs against him."
Some Republicans, such as Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse, and Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, have been harsher on Trump than Sununu. Sununu endorsed Trump for president in 2020 and claims he is not "anti-Trump."
Sununu, on the other hand, has dismissed Trump's unsubstantiated accusations that the 2020 election would be rigged, describing him as "misinformed." In yet another snub to Trump, the governor said those convicted of taking part in the Capitol violence on Jan. 6 should not be pardoned, and that he didn't need Trump to campaign with him in New Hampshire.
Sununu subsequently claimed that he was only cracking "jokes" at the Gridiron Club dinner in Washington, D.C.
Sununu does not appear to have been harmed by the GOP's current iteration's saber-rattling of the past president. Sununu is favored by men, women, and people of all ages and educational levels in New Hampshire, according to the latest Saint Anselm College survey. Despite his moderate reputation, 86 percent of Republicans and more than 80 percent of respondents who identify themselves as "extremely conservative" think he's a good guy.
"Just objectively, politically, he's negotiated the Trump issue pretty effectively," said Fergus Cullen, a former New Hampshire Republican Party chair. "He understands when he should hug him and when he should push him away."
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