The Suns don't appear to be the same 64-win team that dominated the rest of the NBA during the regular season.
Dallas tied the second-round series at three games apiece on Thursday night, as Phoenix dropped three of its past four games. One of the league's most effective attacks has ground to a halt in Game 7. Meanwhile, the Mavs have found a winning formula, and an upset on Sunday afternoon is a distinct possibility.
We didn't anticipate this contest to be so dramatic only a week ago. In Game 2, the Suns raced to a 2–0 lead behind a combined 58 points from Chris Paul and Devin Booker, seemingly putting an end to Dallas' postseason journey. The script has since been reversed. In Game 6, Booker went 6-for-16 from the field and 0-for-4 from three. Over the previous three games, Paul has scored 25 points. Dallas has thwarted a previously fatal strike, and its victory is due to more than just shooting luck.
Last year, the Mavericks' suffocating defense would have been inconceivable. Last season, Dallas was ranked 20th in defensive rating after allowing 126 points in a Game 7 defeat to the Clippers in the first round. Jason Kidd's entrance altered everything. In his first season as coach, he and his staff guided Dallas to a top-10 defense, and after the departure of Kristaps Porzingis, the Mavericks hit their stride.
Dallas plays without a convention center for large stretches of games, with Dorian Finney-Smith ($52 million) and Reggie Bullock serving as wing impact defenders. Frank Ntilikina is finally proving to be a significant defensive player, recording four steals in 21 minutes on Thursday. Deandre Ayton, the center for the Phoenix Suns, is a talented player who should not be confused with Joel Embiid or Nikola Joki. Ayton likes to rely on his mid-range shot and over-the-shoulder hook, not posing a threat from three or regularly attacking the rim. Due to his failure to punish Dallas in the paint, an undersized unit is flourishing.
Dallas' front staff deserves credit for their small-ball approach, which is paying off. Many felt that the Mavericks' trade of Porzingis was a wise long-term decision, one that would nonetheless hurt their Finals chances. However, this has not been the case. Dwight Powell is now the team's sole genuine rim runner, and any lineup that doesn't include Powell has Luka Doni paired with a quartet of spacers or backup ball-handlers. Dallas isn't wasting opportunities on unnecessary post-ups or contested pick-and-pop threes, and Jalen Brunson appears to be cruising to the rim at will. This is a supporting cast that is now totally supportive of its star. This kind of unity might be enough to overcome any perceived talent gap between these two teams.
It's difficult to imagine Sunday going anywhere near as bad for the reigning Western Conference champs as Thursday night did. In Game 6, Booker had eight turnovers (the Suns had 22 in total), and Phoenix was outscored by 30 points from the three-point range. A return to familiar confines in Game 7 should help to square out the three-point difference, and despite a spotty résumé, Paul's considerable postseason experience has significance. After a two-season run of relative domination, Phoenix remains the favorite.
Despite having the home-court advantage, one can't help but wonder whether we're in for a surprise finish to the weekend. The Mavericks are constantly attacking the rim and producing open triples. Phoenix's brilliant backcourt is being shut down. They've established a winning rotation, and in case you didn't notice, they have by far the greatest player in the series. As Game 7 approaches, we should remember Kidd's thoughts on his franchise hero from seven months ago.
“What [Dončić] can do when the lights are brightest isn’t normal," Kidd said. "It’s special.”
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