The trial for allegedly bringing hashish oil into Russia by Brittney Griner is set to start on Friday. By that time, 134 days would have passed since the WNBA star was detained while attempting to enter the country through an airport near Moscow. If found guilty, she may spend 10 years in jail. However, U.S. authorities and analysts claim that Griner will be the focus of a show trial before the case even starts and that a guilty finding is all but guaranteed. They claim that the entire exercise is a ploy to pressure the Biden administration into making a concession in exchange for her freedom.
According to William Pomeranz, the interim director of the Kennan Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, D.C., and an authority on Russian law, "it's a foregone outcome and the trial is to maintain the state and validate the power of the state." "The immediate problem is not justice."
What might the public thus anticipate from Griner in the upcoming weeks and even months? ESPN talked to a number of specialists regarding the situation.
What will happen Friday?
"A trial there is not a trial in the U.S. since — opening remarks, jury selection, 'call your first witness' — none of that," claims Tom Firestone, a partner at Stroock & Stroock & Lavan and a former resident legal counselor to the U.S. Embassy in Moscow.
The "trial" will mostly consist of the judge reading the prosecution's case file into the record. Prosecutors will eventually summon witnesses, and the judge will likely conduct the interrogation. One expert said that the prosecutors occasionally just sit there "like potted plants."
Griner, like the majority of the accused, is anticipated to spend the whole trial behind bars. There is usually no jury in court, as juries are only used in Russia for the most serious offenses.
Pomeranz predicts that "it will just be a fairly dry recounting of the facts." There won't be a Perry Mason moment, I'm afraid.
The Griner trial will technically be open to the public, but not in the way that most Americans understand.
Pomeranz recalls, "They let a few people observe, but I wouldn't call it a public trial." But rest certain that they won't let in western media. "I'm sure some state media will be let in merely to capture some preliminary images of the events."
Firestone claims that although Russian courts occasionally declare a trial to be open to the public, anyone who isn't personally involved in the case will be turned from. She won't be joined by her relatives. According to sources, U.S. Embassy representatives are anticipated to attend the trial to show the government's support for her cause.
What can the defense do?
Even if Griner has the best legal representation she could possibly get in Russia, her chances of success in court remain unchanged since, even without the political considerations in her case, 99 percent of criminal trials there result in convictions.
"For the typical Russian, it is a fantasy. In a situation like this one in politics, it's a double delusion, "Says Pomeranz.
The problem for defendants, according to Firestone, is that the prosecution does not have to record any exculpatory material that the defense presents to them during the investigation stage.
The judge won't take it into consideration because it wasn't included in the case file, he continues, but you may try to submit it in court.
That, according to Pomeranz, is the Russian criminal justice system in a nutshell.
The right to object during testimony is reserved for the defense, although this seldom happens and is rarely effective.
What is the evidence against Griner?
Only the prosecution is aware at this time. Perhaps they have her covered and have concrete evidence that she committed the offense for which she is being held accountable. Perhaps there will be fabricated or dubious evidence; Russian prosecutors have a track record of doing so.
Witnesses have been known to materialize and recall damning exchanges and events. But according to experts, none of it will matter since the court will believe the evidence once it is given and she will undoubtedly be found guilty as a consequence.
What's her best strategy?
It may not be what you anticipate.
According to Pomeranz, "the traditional best defense is to accept your guilt and hope you receive a lighter punishment." "There aren't many examples of people mounting compelling defenses and winning their cases,"
In fact, he claims that Russian judges frequently lose their jobs if they exonerate an excessive number of accusers.
Experts also predict that in order to secure Griner's release, Russia will probably demand an admission of guilt from her. If she enters a "not guilty" plea and mounts a good defense, the Russian government may make her life much worse in the interim.
Griner's close associates declined to comment on her planned plea, but analysts say that because there is little hope of acquittal, it would be wiser from a tactical standpoint to merely admit guilt now. This would generate problems for the White House and the U.S. State Department, but it might make Griner's situation more tolerable and increase the likelihood that a deal to return home will be reached.
How long will the trial last?
The trial may proceed in fits and starts once it gets going. According to Firestone, a judge may occasionally postpone for a few days without giving a clear cause. When a witness doesn't show up before the day's proceedings begin in court, he claims, "the judge adjourns for a couple of weeks."
Therefore, even though Griner's case would appear simple—she either possessed vape cartridges with hashish oil or she didn't—the trial might go many weeks or perhaps months.
"This one is tricky because they have to persuade everyone that she is guilty and that they are the ones with the evidence. Thus, this is an unusual circumstance "Says Pomeranz. We will just have to wait to find out what the evidence is, but I would anticipate there to be a lot that has to be read into the record.
If it's a foregone conclusion, why are they having the trial at all?
According to Danielle Gilbert, an associate professor of military and strategic studies at the U.S. Air Force Academy, "It's a bargaining approach."
She claims that the trial and the potential for a lengthy sentence give the Russians more negotiation power.
Griner's conviction and punishment are meant to motivate her followers to put pressure on the White House to reach a deal that benefits Russia. Additionally, it only functions if Russia recognizes the procedures as genuine.
According to Gilbert, "hostage diplomacy relies on the fiction of legality to fake a legitimate procedure." To hide its plan to use Griner as leverage, the Russian government is relying on Americans' own respect for the law.
Pomeranz concurs.
He laments that "the Russians will try to locate anyone else and put them in the same position and start anew with a different set of restrictions as soon as Griner will be released."
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